New CFP Prediction Forecasts Familiar Heartbreak for Texas Longhorns — SEC Powerhouse Projected to Stumble Against Ohio State Rematch in Quarterfinals, Leaving Longhorn Fans Bracing for Déjà Vu Disaster Despite Expansion Promise!

🧨 “New CFP Prediction Forecasts Familiar Heartbreak for Texas Longhorns — SEC Powerhouse Projected to Stumble Against Ohio State Rematch in Quarterfinals, Leaving Longhorn Fans Bracing for Déjà Vu Disaster Despite Expansion Promise!” 🧨

 

 

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In a stunning twist amid growing anticipation for the 2025 College Football Playoff season, a fresh prognostication by On3 insider Brett McMurphy suggests the Texas Longhorns will lip‑sync their way into a painful déjà vu moment—this time even earlier in the postseason. The prediction outlines a painful exit not in the semifinals as recently, but at the quarterfinal stage, with arch‑rivals Ohio State delivering a decisive blow once more .

 

 

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📅 Context: Expanded Field, Familiar Faces, Unsettling Patterns

 

The College Football Playoff has officially expanded to 12 teams — paving the way for more opportunities and more drama . This expanded format provides first-round byes to the top four seeds, who then proceed to quarterfinal games held at New Year’s Six bowls. Here’s the rub: Texas, projected as the No. 5 seed, would miss out on a bye and be slotted directly into a game against No. 4-seed Ohio State —a matchup loaded with recent history and heartbreak.

 

 

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💥 The Epic Fallout: Why It’s a Tough Pill to Swallow

 

Rematch of a Painful Past: In January’s Cotton Bowl semifinal (effectively the CFP semifinal) in Arlington, Texas’s home turf, the Buckeyes routed the Longhorns 28–14 — a performance that crushed Texas’s championship hopes .

 

No. 5 vs. No. 4 Showdown: McMurphy’s prediction places Texas against Ohio State again—this time in the CFP quarterfinals—not with the benefit of a bye week, adding an element of fatigue and pressure.

 

Back‑to‑Back Exits: A loss in the quarters isn’t just a stumble — it would mark back-to-back playoff exits at the hands of the same opponent. Texas fans are weary of this recurring nightmare and the optics of “they just can’t beat OSU.”

 

 

 

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📋 Map of the Predicted 2025 CFP Path for Texas

 

1. First Round (Jan 2026): Texas vs. Boise State — expected win.

 

 

2. Quarterfinal: Texas travels to Ohio State — predicted loss as Buckeyes overcome Longhorns again .

 

 

3. Semis/Championship: Texas finishes season earlier, leaving the playoffs for others.

 

 

 

 

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🛠 What Fans and Analysts Are Saying

 

While McMurphy’s focus is on the following CFP structural reality, other analysts and betting markets suggest Texas still has a shot at being the favorite:

 

Ari Wasserman (On3): Predicted Texas would win the No. 1 seed, beat Oregon, and finally get past Ohio State in the semifinal before winning the national title .

 

Athlon Sports & ESPN FPI projects Texas as the No. 1 overall seed with the highest odds to win a national title — pegged at roughly 22% championship probability .

 

Sportsbook Odds: Texas displaced Oregon as the early betting favorite over the holidays. But the seeding misfortune may erode that cushion .

 

 

 

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⚔️ Why This Prediction Cuts Deeper

 

1. rematch nightmare: Facing a team that just dominated you less than a year ago, without home-field advantage and with a fatigued roster, is a recipe for devastating replay.

 

 

2. format shifts: The 12-team CFP may allow for more heartbreak—teams like Texas can stumble earlier and harder than under the old four-team system.

 

 

3. lack of bye week: The No. 5 seed path forces Texas to play first-round games, putting them at a physical and strategic disadvantage against rested top-four teams.

 

 

4. over reliance on arch Manning: Texas quarterback Arch Manning is talented, but largely untested under pressure. If he falters against Ohio State’s elite defense, the offense could collapse.

 

 

 

 

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🌟 Texas’s Redemption Versus Ohio State—Is It Still Possible?

 

Yes, analysts like Wasserman believe Texas’s roster depth—led by Manning, defensive anchors Anthony Hill Jr. and Michael Taafe, plus elite recruiting momentum—can push them past Ohio State and possibly to a national title .

 

But McMurphy’s prediction is grounded in seeding realities and psychology—such rematches often tilt to the more confident, revenge-seeking Buckeyes.

 

 

 

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🔮 Final Takeaway

 

Texas has booked its spot for a third consecutive CFP appearance — but the road is getting steeper. The expanded format has created what McMurphy calls a “familiar heartbreak scenario”: a mid-playoff clash against Ohio State, likely on the road, with everything on the line. Despite being favorites in public opinion and bookie lines, the seeding dice may doom them to a repeat nightmare.

 

For Longhorn fans, this prophecy isn’t just analytical. It cuts to the emotional marrow: Can Texas break the OSU hex, or are they destined for another early collapse? The stakes extend beyond wins and losses—it’s about redemption, respect, and reclaiming national throne.

 

Whoever writes next year’s Texas chapter must wrestle with whether Sarkisian’s crew can overcome this structural hurdle and psychological scar. The Longhorns are immense in talent and hype — but sometimes, in postseason football, that extra goodbye-week matters as much as raw ability.

 

 

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📰 Stay tuned — as August approaches and season unfolds, we’ll revisit seedings, matchups, and whether Texas can engineer a path of redemption or if heartbreak is again on the horizon.