Patrick Sandoval rains insults on Phillies fans and the club interest on him in a…. Read more
Phillies Reportedly Among Teams Interested In Patrick Sandoval
According to Sports Illustrated’s Tom Verducci, the Phillies have expressed interest in signing free agent starter Patrick Sandoval. Verducci also notes the Phillies aren’t alone in considering the left-hander, though he does not name any other teams that might have checked in.
Sandoval, 28, was somewhat surprisingly non-tendered by the Angels earlier this offseason. The southpaw was projected to earn $5.9MM next year in his second season of arbitration eligibility. The Angels seemingly decided that was too much to pay for an arm who will not pitch for most (if not all) of the 2025 campaign; he underwent Tommy John surgery this past June. However, if Sandoval cannot pitch in 2025, he’d likely earn an identical $5.9MM salary in 2026. That’s a total of $11.8MM over both seasons. If he comes back healthy in 2026 and pitches anything like he has over the past four years, $11.8MM would still be an excellent value for his services.
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From 2021-24, Sandoval threw 460 innings for the Angels, pitching to a 3.80 ERA and 4.35 SIERA. His 5.08 ERA over 16 starts in 2024 was unsightly, but his 4.26 SIERA suggests he was the victim of some bad luck, as does his high BABIP (.341) and low strand rate (66.2%). According to FanGraphs, Sandoval has been worth 8.8 Wins Above Replacement over the last four seasons, including 1.2 WAR in 16 starts this past year. That’s an average of 2.9 WAR per 150 innings pitched. That kind of production goes for much more than $11.8MM on the open market.
Nevertheless, the Angels decided not to commit themselves to Sandoval, freeing him up to sign elsewhere as a free agent. He is likely looking for a backloaded two-year pact that would allow him to rehab with his new team in 2025 and hopefully pitch a full, healthy season in 2026. A good comparison is the two-year, $22MM contract Tyler Mahle signed with the Rangers last winter. He earned $5.5MM in the first year of the deal and will earn $16.5MM in the second. Like Sandoval, Mahle was rehabbing from Tommy John and unlikely to pitch for most of 2024. What’s more, Mahle had thrown 503 2/3 innings with a 4.22 ERA and 3.93 SIERA in the five seasons preceding his TJS, very similar numbers to Sandoval’s. Mahle had his surgery a month and a half earlier in the season than Sandoval did – early May as opposed to late June – which meant he was more likely to pitch in at least part of the first year of his deal. That might have given Mahle slightly more earning potential than Sandoval has right now. Still, it’s a useful point of comparison to estimate Sandoval’s value on the open market.
It’s easy to see why the Phillies would like the idea of a backloaded contract that keeps costs low next season. Their projected payroll for 2025 (per RosterResource) is currently $271MM, more than $20MM higher than last year’s final tally. However, they have several contracts coming off the books next winter. J.T. Realmuto, Kyle Schwarber, Jordan Romano, and Ranger Suárez will be free agents after this coming season, potentially freeing up more than $60MM in payroll. That would make it easier for Philadelphia to pay Sandoval a higher salary in the second year of his theoretical deal.
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Speaking of Suárez, the Phillies could be eyeing Sandoval as a potential replacement if the former leaves in free agency before the 2026 campaign. Like Suárez, Sandoval is a left-hander with a deep arsenal of pitches. Suárez has been a key contributor for Philadelphia over the past four years, and he’s been slightly more productive than Sandoval. In 537 innings, he has a 3.27 ERA, 3.92 SIERA, and 11.2 fWAR. Yet, with Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, and Cristopher Sánchez already under contract for several more years and top prospect Andrew Painter nearing his debut, the Phillies might not be interested in keeping Suárez around long-term. Sandoval could represent an intriguing, and less expensive, alternative.
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